A spark over the issue of reservations ignited student protests in Bangladesh, and the government’s brutal crackdown only fuelled their escalation. That chain of events ultimately toppled Sheikh Hasina and set Bangladesh on a new political trajectory. Now, it appears something similar may be unfolding in Nepal, though details remain unclear and the country’s direction hangs in the balance. Nepal’s Prime Minister, K. P. Sharma Oli, has resigned after anti-corruption protests turned deadly, leaving 19 dead and more than 100 injured in clashes with police.
The parallels with Bangladesh are striking. There too, simmering anger over corruption spread online, prompting a government crackdown on social media. That heavy-handed response only deepened public fury, sparking violent demonstrations, the burning of the Parliament building, and scenes of ministers chased through the streets. The fall of the Hasina government has already reshaped South Asia’s political landscape in unpredictable ways. Nepal, long seen as a buffer state between India and China, may now undergo its own upheaval.
For decades, Nepal has leaned toward India, with which it shares deep cultural and historical ties. Yet in recent years, China has emerged as a key economic and diplomatic partner, funnelling investment into the country. In Bangladesh too, India’s influence waned as Beijing and even Pakistan found new openings. A similar realignment in Nepal could further tilt the region’s balance of power.
The question now is whether Nepal’s next government will side more decisively with India or China—or whether it will try to carve out an independent course of sovereignty and development. The choices its leaders make in the coming months will not only shape Nepal’s future but may also ripple across South Asia’s already shifting geopolitical map.
