Nothing spooks capital markets quite like uncertainty, and since there’s still no word on when, or even if, the IMF bailout program is going to revived, it’s only natural for Pakistan’s equity and currency markets to run out of patience and set the stage for an epic bear market. The rupee breathed a sigh of relief, and even stocks rallied, when the new government took over and it seemed for a moment that both certainty and sanity would return to the country and therefore also to the market. But that was not to be, and sentiment-driven upswings can last only so long. The market’s had word that nobody’s coming to our aid, not even tried, tested and all-weather friends, till we settle our issues with the Fund.
And since that is going to require the government to end all subsidies before anything else, which will definitely be a very unpopular decision at a time when the political climate is already so volatile, people as well as markets should brace for more choppy waters ahead. No doubt Finance Minister Miftah Ismail understands that the fastest and surest way to fix the market right now is to fix the economy first. With reserves depleting, remittances plateauing, exports still not budging enough to impact the trade balance, and foreign investment beelining for the exit lounge, Pakistan is in desperate need of fresh debt. And it is not going to have it till it hammers out an agreement with the IMF. That’s what everybody is waiting for; not just business and ordinary Pakistanis, but also friendly countries and other multi- and bilateral donors that take cue from the Fund. So, the sooner the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is put back on track, the sooner market bloodbaths like Monday’s can be put behind us.
