Najm us Saqib
Scene one: PML (N) is already in celebration mode but the enthusiasm about the PM ship seems to have mellowed down. Its leadership has been successful in wriggling out of all cases as the Courts, the NAB and the ECP have taken a sympathetic view of all past ‘wrongdoings’ to ensure provision of a level-playing-field to the apparently chosen party. Western Ambassadors have held meetings with the PML (N) supreme leader. All other parties have accepted ‘pre-poll rigging’ albeit not before expressing their indignation. With IK still incarcerated, PML (N) leaders will have no difficulty in running the ‘mandatory’ election campaign. PPPP would be pleased to retain Sindh and would not mind at all to get a few additional seats in Punjab. PTI is working on how to gather their ‘independent’ candidates under its broken umbrella once they contested elections with signs other than the bat. IPP is all set to become PML (Q) of yesteryears. Parliament is getting ready to witness the largest bazar ever of horse trading. The masses are wondering why money is being squandered for holding elections if the results thereof are already known.
Scene two: The internal security situation is getting worse by the day. TTP and its cohorts are keeping the LEAs busy twenty-four-seven. The new wave of terrorism remains a matter of grave concern for the Armed Forces, Intelligence Agencies and the caretaker setup alike. Kabul seems reluctant in acceding to Islamabad’s requests. The return of refugees has caused additional frictions between the two countries. Islamabad seems determined to eliminate terrorism and extremism against all odds.
Scene three: A dismal economic situation continues to portray bleak prospects as low tax revenue, large energy sector debt, huge SOEs losses, low exports and super subsidies keep giving sleepless nights to the country’s economic managers. On the other hand, some measures have shown promising signs as the dollar flight is halted; some smugglers and hoarders are reprimanded; a few electricity and gas thieves have been apprehended; and the stock exchange is showing unprecedented trends. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) established to attract billions of dollars mainly from the GCC countries, has since been introduced in the UN General Assembly and the World Economic Forum (WEF).
Scene four: Sino-Pakistan relations are getting strengthened with the commencement of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) while the US-Pak trajectory still causes concerns for Islamabad. The COAS’s military diplomacy takes routes in Washington but matters relating to trade and investment could not be addressed. Islamabad has started looking towards the East with hopes of compensating for the loopholes in the economy. Pakistan remains ‘irrelevant’ for India as the latter starts poking its nose in AJK’s affairs after getting a nod from its Supreme Court regarding its actions of 5 Aug 2019. With no hope of normalization of relations, Pakistan choses to overlook India and refocus its attention on matters other than Kashmir. Perhaps, it is time that Islamabad pulled out a copy of its first ever National Security Policy from the archives and have it updated, particularly its chapter on the country’s foreign policy.
Election Scene: The President, the Supreme Court, the Election Commission of Pakistan, the caretaker PM and all the major political parties have decided rather vowed to hold the polls in the country on 8 February. The Supreme Court has warned all tv channels against airing any views that could put the election date in doubt. Candidates from various parties along with the independents have been allotted election symbols. Election campaigns have commenced with all three major parties expressing confidence over their chances of winning majority seats. However, the Senate of Pakistan, quoting the alarming security situation and the extreme cold weather, would wish to delay the election date by at least three months. Many believed that since the most popular political party had been denied its election symbol during a televised hearing of the Supreme Court just a few weeks before the elections, the Senate or any other stakeholder might not have any objection on holding elections on the announced date. Nevertheless, the Senate keeps reiterating its demand of delaying the polls, one resolution after another.
The twist: Iran and Pakistan have decided to address all issues amicably after exchanging drones and missiles. Both countries have also decided to follow the path of negotiation after proving a point or two. Hence, if elections get delayed, the reasons thereof must be outside the prevailing tensions between the two neighborly Muslim countries. It would be interesting to see how the caretakers would justify any delay in elections.
Assessment: Facing serious existential threats, Pakistan is in the grip of a grotesque albatross. The alarming security situation and the deteriorating economic predicament have made the upcoming general elections almost inconsequential. The hopes of having some kind of political certainty even after the general elections, are gradually fading. The already jaded elections even if held on time or delayed, are likely to produce an unevenly hung Parliament whose first and foremost job would be to present the country’s budget. The incumbent President needs replacement. The coveted posts of PM, CM Punjab and the Federal Finance and Foreign Ministers are likely to be contested fiercely, thereby, creating further chaos within the rank and file of the ruling party as well as in Parliament. The mantra of ‘mujhey kiun nikala’ could not be ruled out as the three-time PM has a right to know the reasons of his unceremonious ouster. Hence, the ghosts of the past are likely to first haunt and then mar the political landscape, thereby, bringing the country back to square one.
The question that might have prompted the Senate to have the general elections delayed perhaps related to the continuation of the policies put in place by the caretaker setup particularly the SIFC and the privatization process. As the new democratically elected PM is not likely to follow the footsteps of a caretaker PM, the needle on the elections’ clock has refused to tick any further. The choice is between the devil and the deep blue sea. Hence, one thing could be safely deduced. Whether the elections are held in February or May, the outcome will pose more problems for the country than offering solutions.
Clearly, a battle between the democratic process and the process of economic recovery has commenced. Due to several factors, in Pakistan, democracy and economic prosperity has somehow become mutually exclusive. As miracles don’t happen in this age, the politicians are not likely to gather under one roof and assure the powers-that-be to collectively work for the country’s future. Seemingly, the chosen party is not in a mood to blink and provide requisite assurances. It wants the lion’s share. All said and done, political uncertainty is likely to continue or, God forbid, Pakistan may have to face the unlikely outcome of a political failure in any third world country. Meanwhile, the nation is forced to endure uncertainties in almost every sphere of life.
Courtesy
