The world’s stockpiles of nuclear weapons are expected to increase over the next decade, reversing a decline seen since the end of the Cold War. All nine nuclear-armed countries are increasing or upgrading their arsenals. There are clear indications that the reductions that have characterised global nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War have ended. The US and Russia, which hold 90% of the world’s atomic weapons, saw their inventories decline in 2021 due to the dismantling of warheads retired from military service years ago. Their useable military stockpiles remained relatively stable and within the limits set by a nuclear arms reduction treaty.
The research institute said that the other nuclear states — the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — are either developing or deploying new weapon systems, or have announced their intention to do so. Israel has never publicly acknowledged having such weapons. All of the nuclear-armed states are increasing or upgrading their arsenals and most are sharpening nuclear rhetoric and the role nuclear weapons play in their military strategies. This is a very worrying trend. Of the total inventory of an estimated 12 705 warheads at the start of 2022, about 9440 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Of those, an estimated 3732 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and around 2000—nearly all of which belonged to Russia or the USA—were kept in a state of high operational alert.
Although Russian and US total warhead inventories continued to decline in 2021, this was due to the dismantling of warheads that had been retired from military service several years ago. The number of warheads in the two countries’ useable military stockpiles remained relatively stable in 2021. Both countries’ deployed strategic nuclear forces were within the limits set by a bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty (2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, New START). Note, however, that New START does not limit total non-strategic nuclear warhead inventories. ‘There are clear indications that the reductions that have characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the cold war have ended.
In 2021 the UK declared that it will no longer publicly disclose numbers of operationally available warheads, deployed warheads or deployed missiles. The British Government declared in 2010 that its nuclear weapon stockpile would not exceed 225 warheads. The official meaning of the term ‘stockpile’ appears to refer to the total warhead inventory that includes both useable and retired warheads to be dismantled. the total inventory remained at 225 warheads in January 2022.
A government review published in 2021 raised the ceiling for the future stockpile from 225 to 260. Even estimate of China’s total inventory is the same as for January 2021, the number of stockpiled warheads potentially available for use has changed because new launchers became operational during 2021.
Estimates of the number of warheads that North Korea could build with the amount of fissile material it has produced, this year the estimate is for the number of actual assembled warheads North Korea possesses. The country’s inventory of fissile material is believed to have grown in 2021, to perhaps enough to produce 45–55 warheads.
