In a stark warning delivered in Karachi, World Bank President Ajay Banga emphasised the urgent need for Pakistan to create up to 30 million jobs over the next decade or risk instability and mass migration. That means roughly 2.5 to three million new jobs each year, a daunting reality considering Islamabad’s planning board has recently approved projects that promise a mere 95,000 jobs. This is a drop in the ocean compared to the requirements of a burgeoning labour force currently numbering around 71.8 million and growing by 2 million entrants each year.
With a population of approximately 241.5 million, 26% are aged between 15 and 29. However, the country’s GDP growth stagnates at around 3%, hardly sufficient to absorb even the current wave of entrants. To compound matters, fully 90% of jobs must originate from the private sector, which is currently stifled by chronic power shortages, crippling debt, and excessive bureaucratic red tape.
The implications of this crisis are becoming increasingly evident, with a brain drain already underway. Recent reports indicate that in 2025 alone, nearly 4,000 doctors left the country–marking the highest figure recorded. Tens of thousands of engineers, IT professionals, and teachers are following suit. Meanwhile, remittances have surged to a record $38 billion, highlighting the alarming exodus of skilled workers.
The education system further exacerbates the crisis. Despite universities producing around 800,000 graduates annually, the job market is unable to absorb them, leaving approximately six million graduates unemployed. This is Pakistan’s “education paradox.” According to the Asian Development Bank, the mismatch between skills and job opportunities costs the economy 2-3% of GDP each year. In sectors like IT, engineering, and agriculture (where jobs are available), demand significantly outstrips the supply of qualified graduates.
Gender and social norms skew the imbalance further. Women in Pakistan are drastically under-employed, with only about 24% participating in the workforce and under 20% receiving vocational training. Bridging this gender gap could potentially boost GDP by up to 30%. The experience of Bangladesh, where training millions of women for the garment industry has propelled exports to around $40 billion, stands as a cautionary lesson for Pakistan.
To turn the tide, we need a multifaceted approach. If addressing circular debt, upgrading transmission, and stabilising power supply are vital to energising industry, expanding vocational training is necessary to ensure that curricula meet real job-market demands and bridge the skills gap.
Meeting even half of the 30 million jobs target means a national transformation. We must address foundational issues–power, education, transportation–and dismantle the social barriers that hinder half of our potential talent. The alternative is stark. If Pakistan cannot provide livelihoods for its youth and women, it will simply export its future, leaving a population disillusioned and without opportunity.
