Gilgit-Baltistan is sending Pakistan an early warning from the roof of the country. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has recorded sustained above-normal temperatures this month, with daytime readings 3-5°C above the average and higher minimums reducing overnight refreezing. That combination accelerates mid- and lower-altitude melt and pushes more water into moraine and glacier-dammed lakes, precisely the conditions that precede glacial lake outburst floods.
The tragic events of August 2025, when a glacier burst in the Ghizer district, damming the Ghizer River, are a stark reminder of the dangers we face. The Ministry of Climate Change estimates that over 7.1 million people in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are living precariously beneath these thawing icecaps, paying a climate price they never agreed to: a cruel paradox that points to systemic injustice.
As global heating escalates, Pakistan finds itself in the crosshairs of repeated tragedies. The catastrophic floods of 2025 served as a loud and clear warning, with Gallup estimating close to 16 million households and almost 100 million Pakistanis affected in one way or another. In their wake, thousands of homes were lost, farms were submerged, and livelihoods were destroyed, with the poorest bearing the brunt of this suffering. A Gallup survey also highlighted this inequality, noting how 52% of those affected were from low-income backgrounds. Job losses and the destruction of nearly 20% of our GDP (primarily rooted in agriculture) underscore this grim reality.
Pakistan’s share of global CO? emissions is negligible–around 0.4% in major energy datasets–yet the country sits at the frontline of heat, melt, and extreme rainfall. That asymmetry should strengthen Pakistan’s diplomacy on climate finance, not substitute for domestic preparedness. The 2022 floods illustrate the stakes. Early estimates spoke of at least $10 billion in losses, while the World Bank-led assessment later placed damages and economic losses together at roughly $30 billion. While international pledges have been made before, including more than $9 billion announced at the January 2023 Geneva conference, their delivery and absorption are a different saga altogether. Meanwhile, villages continue to rebuild in the mud, often without the necessary safeguards to protect them from future catastrophes.
For far too long, world climate talks have continued to ignore those at the sharp end. We must claim our due. Pakistan should join other developing countries in insisting the global North pay up, demanding debt write-offs, grants and green technology. Our people deserve more than empty promises. However, tragic as it is, we need to clean our own house to be taken seriously by others. Some of the more workable solutions include enforcing no-build zones on floodplains and riverbanks, funding early-warning systems and evacuation capacity in mountain valleys, climate-proofing roads and bridges that repeatedly fail, and publishing transparent tracking of all resilience spending. Climate is now Pakistan’s macroeconomic risk, which, if treated as a line item, will keep returning as a national emergency.
