Finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb rightly warned on Monday, “Pakistan’s economic future depends on how effectively it can manage its rapidly growing population and escalating climate threats.”
We are already brushing against the iceberg, and the threat of a slow but certain sinking grows unless immediate course correction begins.
Our 241 million people make us the world’s fifth-largest country. Some view this as a potential source of strength, yet even a cursory glance at our overstretched resources raises uncomfortable questions about how we will secure the land, water and jobs needed to sustain this population. The UN projects that we may reach 263 million by 2030. Every additional child born into poverty deepens pressure on schools, clinics and already-strained welfare systems. Government spending reveals how low a priority the issue remains: Balochistan allocated just Rs120 million for family planning this year, even as maternal mortality and malnutrition remain among the country’s worst. The climate is compounding the crisis. Pakistan is already among the world’s most vulnerable nations to weather extremes, despite contributing barely 1% of global emissions. In 2022, super-floods submerged one-third of the country, displaced millions and inflicted some $30?billion in damages. This year’s monsoon killed over 1,000 people and cost at least $2.9?billion in crop and infrastructure losses. Agriculture still employs over 40% of our workforce, so any dip in yields hurts food security and national income. Repeated floods, droughts and heatwaves have been damaging crops and straining fiscal resources that are already fragile. The youth could become a potential workforce, but only if they are healthy and educated. Nearly 40 per cent of our children under five are chronically stunted. UNICEF reports that some 22.8 million Pakistani kids aged 5-16 are out of school, a staggering waste of human capital. Even among those in school, learning levels are poor, and dropouts are common.
This is a ticking time bomb. Growth figures mean little if half its workforce can neither read nor meet their nutritional needs. The conversation is changing, for sure. The parliamentary forum in Balochistan has formally urged all provinces to act on the Council of Common Interests’ population resolutions. Even the Council of Islamic Ideology now talks of tawazzun–balance between population and resources–signalling that thoughtful family planning can be framed within cultural norms. Similarly, Punjab’s government has merged its population welfare department into health, and Sindh appointed a minister for population welfare. These are all welcome but token steps. We have acknowledged the what and why of the crisis – now we must agree on the how of solutions. Legislators should craft and pass a national population policy with teeth: not coercive limits, but guaranteed funding for family planning, girls’ education, rural health clinics and sanitation. As Minister Aurangzeb put it, “Pakistan cannot repeatedly seek international appeals or borrow for every challenge.” The time has come to take responsibility, set priorities and begin the long, necessary work of putting our house in order.
