Prolonged Russia-Ukraine war to hit global food supplies: IFAD

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ROME
A prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict is heightening worries about global food inflation and hunger, UN agency International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has warned.
“We are very concerned that an extended conflict in Ukraine could limit the world’s supply of staple crops like wheat, corn and sunflower oil, resulting in the skyrocketing of food prices and hunger,” Rome-based IFAD said. “This could jeopardise global food security and heighten geopolitical tensions.”
Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s major staple grains markets, and the conflict is prompting countries that rely on imports from them to seek alternative suppliers.
The Black Sea plays a major role in the global food trade, exporting at least 12 percent of the food calories traded in the world, according to IFAD. Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade and nearly a fifth of corn trade.
“The continuation of this conflict, already a tragedy for those directly involved, will be catastrophic for the entire world, and particularly those that are already struggling to feed their families,” the agency warned.
With Ukraine’s ports closed, the conflict has also triggered shipping turmoil in the Black Sea. “Due to continuing disruption to shipping in the Black Sea, we expect container build-ups at ports to exacerbate at storage areas across the region,” a container company said in a statement last week.
The world’s biggest shipping lines, MSC and Maersk, suspended container shipping to and from Russia (excluding foodstuff, medical and humanitarian supplies), joining a growing list of companies that have halted operations in the country in response to western sanctions on Moscow.
“Russian and Belarusian ports in the Baltic and Black Sea will likely see a build-up of boxes if carriers refuse to make port calls due to the security situation and sanctions,” the company said.
Some Russian banks have also been barred from the Swift global financial network. The full implications of sanctions are not yet clear but the closure of the Swift system to Russia will make payments from Russian partners more difficult. Maritime trade with Russia and Russian businesses could be “very difficult” in the months and even years to come, the company added.
Another industry that has seen an impact is travel. The conflict prompted an instant spike in flight cancellations to and from Russia, according to data from travel trends firm ForwardKeys. On February 25, the day after the start of the military offensive in Ukraine, every booking that was made for travel to Russia was outweighed by six cancellations of pre-existing bookings.
Source markets showing the highest cancellation rates, in order of volume, were Germany, France, Italy, UK, India and Turkey, it said.
The conflict also triggered a collapse in the market for Russian outbound travel. Destinations that suffered the highest immediate cancellation rates, in the period February 24 — 26, were Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey, the UK, Armenia and the Maldives, it said.
A collapse in Russian travel will also have damaging consequences on tourism-dependent economies. Countries likely to see the biggest impact include Armenia, which depends on Russia for 47 per cent of all visitors, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, the Seychelles, Maldives and Cyprus.