Ashok Suthar
The recent announcement of the federal and Sindh budgets has exposed some of the most telling fault lines in Pakistan’s energy landscape. The federal government’s proposal to impose additional taxes on solar panel imports threatens to undercut the very transition the country so urgently needs. Meanwhile, the Sindh government’s budget allocation of Rs 25 billion for off-grid, decentralised solar solutions in rural areas offers a breath of fresh air in an otherwise suffocating policy climate. Amid these contradictory signals, it is difficult to know whether the authorities will allow a people-driven clean energy transition to thrive or block it in the name of short-term fiscal gains.
The state of the national power sector makes the stakes clear. Pakistan now has an installed capacity of over 45,000 MW, yet peak demand even in the hottest summer months rarely exceeds 28,000 MW. Still, load-shedding continues for long hours, crippling the national grid. Ageing infrastructure, transmission bottlenecks, ever-growing circular debt – now above Rs 2.6 trillion – and expensive fuel imports have made the grid not just unreliable but exorbitant for most households. According to the Pakistan Energy Access Survey 2023, about 89% of households are linked to the grid, but over 80% fall under Tier-2 access or below, meaning unreliable supply and unaffordable bills.
This policy vacuum has quietly pushed citizens to find their own way out. In the past five years alone, roughly 39,000 MW worth of solar panels – mostly imported from China – have been installed informally, outside official registration systems (Renewable First 2025). This shift is powering everything from rural homes to schools, water pumps, shops, and small businesses. It is no small feat that Pakistan has emerged as an unlikely frontrunner in grassroots solar adoption in the Global South. Dr. Muhammad Aslam Uqaili, Emeritus Professor at Mehran University of Engineering and Technology (MUET) Jamshoro, argues that if these installations were formally recognised, Pakistan could already be ahead of its 30% renewable energy target for 2030 under the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019. MUET’s Energy Lab has started backing this transition by promoting standards, capacity building, and regulatory guidance to better manage scattered solarisation in remote areas.
Yet this momentum faces a major threat. The proposed federal tax on solar panel imports would hit poor households the hardest – for them, solar power is not a luxury but a lifeline. In off-grid, poverty-stricken regions, affordable solar means more than light; it means freedom. Taxing these communities is akin to shackling the poor while sending worrying signals about Pakistan’s real commitment to clean energy. Nowhere would this be more damaging than in the rural areas of Sindh (outside Karachi) and Balochistan, where more than a third of rural households remain unconnected to the grid. Ironically, these regions also hold Pakistan’s greatest untapped solar and wind potential. The Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Locational Study by the World Bank estimates that over 8,000 MW of solar and wind capacity is already ready to connect, with another 17,000 MW achievable in the near term. Theoretical maximum potential exceeds 150,000 MW – a figure that could transform Pakistan’s energy security if realised.
Yet national planning largely overlooks this opportunity. Though the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2024-2034 is not yet public, early signs suggest it still favours pre-committed, non-renewable capacity and offers negligible new provisions for Sindh and Balochistan. An earlier critique by PRIED and Renewable First found that only 0.05% of IGCEP’s 2022-2031 capacity additions were optimised through cost-oriented modelling – the rest was locked in advance, undercutting any serious least-cost planning. Such blind spots mirror not just bureaucratic apathy but a deliberate sidelining of cost-effective, climate-resilient options.
In Tharparkar, Sindh – a region that supplies coal-fired power to the grid – communities are rapidly shifting to solar to survive. Muhammad Sajan Charo, a local activist, describes how people now power water pumps, lights, TVs, and refrigerators through small solar setups. “Solar isn’t a backup anymore; it’s the main source of electricity here,” he says. Similar stories are playing out in off-grid areas across Sindh and Balochistan. Yet this DIY solar boom has its pitfalls: without standards and skilled installers, rooftop panels are often damaged or blown away during seasonal storms, putting lives and equipment at risk.
This is exactly where solar mini-grids can provide a safer, scalable path forward. The Least-Cost Electrification Study (2024) by the World Bank shows that mini-grids are the most practical and affordable way to electrify remote, sparsely populated areas. Unlike scattered rooftop panels, mini-grids can power entire communities – homes, schools, clinics, businesses – at the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour. They also offer reliability, scalability, and the option to connect with the national grid over time. Sadly, most public initiatives – including Sindh’s plan to distribute 200,000 household solar kits with World Bank support – still favour individual rooftops. While this provides short-term relief, it is unlikely to deliver long-term resilience without a proper policy framework.
The writer is a civil society professional who has worked on community-driven renewable energy initiatives in Sindh.
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