Karachi: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75% this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund. In written responses to Reuters, Ahmad argued the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest. The SBP raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75-4.75% at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage points higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit. The governor said differences in projections were not unusual and reflected timing issues, including the IMF’s incorporation of flood-related assessments in its latest outlook. “All these sources and indicators, along with FY26-Q1 data, point to a broad-based recovery in all three sectors of the economy,” he said. He added that the central bank believed that agricultural activity had remained resilient despite floods, and “it is even performing better than its targets.” He added that financial conditions had eased significantly following a cumulative 1,150‑basis‑point cut in the policy rate since June 2024, and that the full impact was still feeding through. This, he said, was supporting growth while preserving price and economic stability. Online
