Dr Qaisar Rashid
Most Pakistanis believe that a person should be honest even if in a state of war. Honesty is the best policy. Reveal your plans scrupulously to your adversary and then follow those plans earnestly, even if you get defeated. These simpletons have not heard about a decoy, an essential part of the art of war.
It was a decoy that spearheaded the B-2 stealth bombers to their bunker-busting termini in Iran. Most Pakistani TV anchorpersons were found claiming that Iran had also deployed its version of counter-decoy by relocating around 400 kg of already 60 per cent enriched uranium to some safe place, probably by trucks. It is not known if the Iranians are uttering such claims; however, it is known that this kind of claim renders the intent of Iran suspicious. Iran had been saying that its nuclear ambitions were for generating electricity, and hence, for peaceful purposes. However, Pakistani anchorpersons were more enthusiastic than the Iranians to claim that Iran was en route to developing a nuclear bomb clandestinely, besides pressing upon Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. Certainly, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Perceivably, the story of the lost enriched uranium would remain alive like the drums of chemical that lay stranded somewhere in Iraq in 2003. Afterwards, nobody could find them. Whereas Iraq was accused of developing weapons of mass destruction through making chemical bombs, Iran was blamed for crossing the threshold of uranium enrichment to elevate its nuclear capability to weapon grade – to develop a few prospective nuclear bombs.
At the pinnacle of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, many “intelligent minds” in Pakistan vented their fear of Israel’s false-flag operation to drag the US into the conflict during the announced hiatus of two weeks. Interestingly, Trump outsmarted them by launching immediate direct strikes on three nuclear sites of Iran, and declared their obliteration, thereby ending the possibility of the survival of centrifuges. The false-flag theory died a natural death. The message oozed was simple: Trump was determined to denuclearise Iran.
It was now the turn of Iran to launch retaliatory strikes. On 23 June, Iran announced it would launch a missile operation, Basharat al-Fateh, airing a famous catchphrase, “you have started the war; we will end it.” The slogan once again excited Pakistani anchorpersons into claiming the start of the Third World War. From their operation rooms, some of them also nudged Russia and China into the fray, siding with Iran. However, within 10 hours, Iran agreed to a ceasefire, announced by Trump, leaving all the overexcited souls in the lurch. In this collapse, a smell of déjà vu could be traced – the way Pakistan and India ended their recent four-day conflict.
It is not only cricketers that are notorious for match-fixing, it is also warriors that do the same. Warriors do war-fixing. They inform each other beforehand to permit their adversary to evacuate and relocate, and then launch spectacular assaults to mesmerise their respective audience. In the end, all participants of war celebrate victories: win for all, and loss for none. That is a feature of modern wars. This kind of jiggery-pokery might have happened frequently in the past, but its occurrence is more revealing now than ever before.
In the age of decoy, a report leaked recently by the Pentagon revealing that the Fordo nuclear facility of Iran might have survived the attack might itself be another decoy. Such reports are contrived and disclosed deliberately to give some face-saving to the victim. Otherwise, unless physically examined, the exact extent of destruction in Fordo cannot be assessed. Even the satellite imagery is handicapped. The leaked report must be the handiwork of warriors doing war-fixing.
Despite all the fanfare of victory, the final outcome of the war still depends on the contents (or conditions) of the agreement which would be reached between the warring parties, Iran and Israel. As apparent, the US is not ready to permit Iran to have any kind of uranium enrichment facility at all in future. This point might be translated into a condition for truce, ending the viability of languished enriched uranium. That is, Iran can develop nuclear power plants (to generate electricity) but it has to import nuclear fuel from abroad to run the power plants, as Canada does.
Iran needs freedom from international sanctions. It has to rejoin the international mainstream. The way Iran’s secrets were leaked to outsiders, it simply means that discontent is rife in Iran. The secrets leaked about officials and official buildings made them victims of precise attacks. Hence, there must be a large population disgruntled with the way of life prevalent in Iran. The first priority of Iran is to do introspection, and not widespread killings on the suspicion of disaffection.
Pakistan’s turn to reaching crunch time is not very far. Pakistan must be readying itself to decide on whether or not to sign an Abraham Accord. This decision will decide the nature of relations between the US and Pakistan. Trump is determined to encourage the expansion of the Abraham Accords. The only relaxation Pakistan may get is that Saudi Arabia will sign an accord first; Pakistan will follow suit. Trump is once again praising Pakistan’s Field Marshal for averting a nuclear war with India. The praise cannot escape the ambit of decoy, an art of war. Decide whether you are with us or against us. Sign the accord, if you are with us: Trump has already whispered it into Pakistani ears.
Trump is a lucky person to be an American national. Otherwise, the kind of “surprising” tweets he is habitual of doing, his Twitter handle would have been banned (rather obliterated), if he were a Pakistani national. He must be thankful to God he resides and works in the US.
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com
