Aisha Saeed
A country’s defense budget is a critical and fundamental component of its security calculus. As Pakistan continues to battle internal and external security threats, this calculus is not merely about an increase in numbers but also encapsulates the strategic resolve to maintain and enhance the country’s national security posture in an increasingly charged and volatile environment. With an increased allocation of 17.6 % of the country’s latest defense budget, it is imperative to contextualize this allocation within the spectrum of both the existing and emerging traditional and non-traditional security threats.
Over the years, Pakistan’s threat spectrum has been composed of internal and external challenges, oscillating between high and low-intensity periods. The country has navigated waves of instability, ranging from internal political unrest and insurgencies to external military threats from neighboring countries like India. Throughout these fluctuations, Pakistan’s strategic reliance on its nuclear deterrent historically has remained a cornerstone of its national security policy. This nuclear capability has served as a critical deterrent to maintain a strategic balance and prevent escalation in a region characterized by enduring rivalries and geopolitical tensions. However, the evolution in conflict dynamics and the new arms race in the region necessitate a substantial defense budget for a country like Pakistan that still battles fractions of terrorist groups and external powers that exploit and threaten its stability.
Several factors can be attributed to the recent augmentation in the defense budget of Pakistan. Although now in isolation, Pakistan continues its fight against insurgency in Balochistan with the BLA and terrorism by TTP, and ISKP in its tribal belts. Pakistan has shifted from wide-scale military operations to intelligence-based operations in the past few years to minimize its internal threats and maximize the effectiveness of such operations. The internal threats have also projected themselves onto the China-Pakistan economic corridor. The project’s long-term sustainability is directly linked to a secure environment, and protecting its installations and personnel remains a concern for Pakistan and China. Balochistan is a vital conduit for CPEC and holds significant strategic importance as a province due to its borders with Afghanistan and Iran, rendering it a crucial frontier in Pakistan’s defense strategy, as it is where the country’s geopolitical and economic interests converge. Although Pakistan has secured its border with Afghanistan by establishing miles-long fence and security posts, the repeated occurrences of border skirmishes, smuggling activities, and the facilitated movement of terrorists from the Afghan territory continue to imperil Pakistan’s national security.
Another unneglectable factor of threat for Pakistan remains at its eastern border by nuclear-armed India. Since the abrogation of Article 370 in August of 2019 in the occupied Jammu and Kashmir, the move has precipitated escalation in tensions and ceasefire violations over the Line of Control between Pakistan and India, intensified military and political hostilities, and a substantial military build-up by India. Under Modi’s belligerent rhetoric, the situation at the Line of Control is hostile once again, compelling Pakistan to adopt reciprocal measures. India’s threat has not been limited to direct military confrontation with Pakistan. With a defense spending seven times higher than Pakistan, India has been involved in financing terror and separatist groups inside Pakistan for years while also heightening and encouraging recent protests in Azad Jammu and Kashmir as well. In the Southwest, Pakistan was forced to reconsider its security approach with Iran after it had launched a series of missile strikes, claiming to target militants. Pakistan later responded with precision strikes on designated targets along the border of Iran. Both countries were swift to defuse the tensions through diplomatic channels but this changed the security dynamics with Iran. Strategically pivotal for Pakistan’s maritime security is the Arabian Sea to its south, a robust naval capability is integral to safeguarding sea lines of communication.
Inarguably for a country that is wedged between tense neighbors and is subjected to the competing interests of the US and China, maintaining its national sovereignty remains crucial. For Pakistan, the significant hike in its defense budget is essential for military modernization and technological innovation, enabling the development and acquisition of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and other defense capabilities. Such advancements are critical in countering traditional military threats but also non-traditional security threats. Investing in cutting-edge technology ensures that Pakistan’s armed forces remain agile and effective, capable of swiftly responding to threats. A technologically advanced military is a significant deterrent, reinforcing Pakistan’s defense posture and discouraging potential adversaries from engaging in hostile actions but also leading to quicker de-escalation in case of conflict. Militarily research and development also requires continued fund allocation which is driven by the overall willingness of the defense spending.
Pakistan maintains one of the largest standing forces in the region, necessitating a substantial budget to support the welfare and operational readiness of its military personnel in both war and peace. Adequate finance is essential for providing training, healthcare, and improved living conditions, crucial for maintaining a motivated and capable fighting force. In addition, this budget also underpins Pakistan’s commitment to global security through its contributions to UN peacekeeping missions.
In a world, that is, increasingly becoming more securitized, Pakistan’s security calculus requires a precarious balancing act in years to come. The said increase in the defense budget emphasizes a carefully considered strategy, aimed at addressing the country’s evolving threat spectrum. By bolstering its defense capabilities, Pakistan seeks to strike a delicate equilibrium between mitigating existing threats and maintaining its security posture, thereby, ensuring its territorial integrity and national interests in the region.
The writer is an independent media and foreign policy analyst. She tweets@MsAishaK.
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