Netanyahu has been accused of exploiting the Gaza war for his own gains, and an end to it could cause him problems
Gaza
Despite the staggering death toll and human suffering that Israel has inflicted on Gaza over the past two years, peace has still come too early for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – at least in the eyes of some observers.
Critics have accused the Israeli leader of using the war to deflect attention from challenges to his position, and even his freedom. With the ceasefire in Gaza now in place, none of those challenges has gone anywhere.
Even the ceasefire – which Netanyahu has been at pains to present as a victory – is seen by some, including former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas, as stage-managed and forced upon him by a White House running out of patience with the growing financial and diplomatic costs of Israel’s war.
So, if he cannot find another war, what challenges does Netanyahu face before next year’s Israeli elections and beyond, and just how dangerous are they?
Let’s take a closer look.
Will the Israeli prime minister continue to face international isolation?
Israel has never been more isolated on the international stage than it is now, and for many, Netanyahu has become the face of that.
Over the last two years, Israel’s killing of more than 67,000 Palestinians and the scenes of the famine it has inflicted upon Gaza have led to revulsion across the world. In the short term, unless Netanyahu’s government can permanently ban international journalists from reaching Gaza, the increased coverage of what his government has inflicted upon the enclave is likely to cement Israel’s pariah status for some time.
However, Israel’s growing isolation has been apparent for months and, in September, Netanyahu appeared to be laying the groundwork for it to continue. Setting out his vision for a future ‘Super Sparta’ – a reference to the martial ancient Greek state – Netanyahu painted a picture of economic and diplomatic isolation and continuous warfare.
It did not go down very well. The Israeli stock exchange plummeted almost immediately, and the shekel nosedived against other currencies. The Israel Business Forum, representing 200 of the country’s largest companies, put it quite simply, “We are not Sparta.”
Could the right wing collapse Netanyahu’s coalition?
It could, but Netanyahu is already taking steps to avoid it.
Throughout the war, and the public battles over the independence of Israel’s judiciary beforehand, Netanyahu has relied heavily on the support of Israel’s far right.
Most obviously, this has been in the form of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, both of whom have objected to the ceasefire while remaining within Netanyahu’s governing coalition, for now.
Anticipating their possible departure, Netanyahu is reported to be introducing legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from the draft in the hope that this will prompt the return of ultra-Orthodox parties in the parliament to his government, ensuring its survival in the face of any defections.
