The earth beneath Karachi continues to stir, not with a roar but with a series of unnerving shivers. Nineteen tremors in less than four days, the strongest a modest magnitude 3.6. It is not a disaster per se, and Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah may even be right in suggesting that low-intensity tremors can alleviate tectonic stress and potentially prevent bigger earthquakes. However, for a city long lulled into seismic complacency, these recent events should serve as a reminder of the looming catastrophe that awaits, not if but when the ground decides to assert its power.
Karachi, a sprawling megacity of 22 million, sits precariously. Geologists may describe its seismic margin as “passive,” yet its proximity to the convergence of the Indian, Eurasian, and Arabian tectonic plates places it in a zone of undeniable risk and as experts have warned with alarming consistency, even a moderate jolt (a magnitude 5 or 6)could unleash unimaginable devastation.
Despite these warnings, Karachi, like other parts of the country, is a monument to systemic neglect. The much-talked-about building codes, updated after the scarring 2005 Kashmir earthquake, are treated more as suggestions than mandates, something sheepishly acknowledged by the very head of the building code committee. A staggering 86% of the city’s structures are reportedly unfit to withstand even a moderate tremor. From the gleaming, illegally constructed high-rises in elite enclaves to the precarious shanties of unplanned settlements, the urban landscape is a canvas of death traps.
From the looks of it, the lessons of Islamabad’s Margalla Tower collapse in 2005 have faded into collective amnesia, replaced by an insatiable appetite for unchecked, dangerous growth. The human cost of this negligence became evident when a minor quake triggered a chaotic evacuation from Malir Jail, resulting in the escape of over 200 inmates. If a ripple can break a high-profile prison’s preparedness, what hope remains for hospitals, schools, or the myriad of un-retrofitted bridges and apartment blocks?
Giving credit where due, the Sindh government and the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) have responded with promising rhetoric. Risk mapping initiatives and an audit of public buildings are now “under active consideration.” A great start indeed, yet it remains just that. A start. Meanwhile, the gap between plans on paper and action on the ground is a chasm that threatens to swallow countless lives.
There’s a lot to learn from around the world. Tokyo, a seismic hotspot, has woven preparedness into its very urban fabric with nationwide drills and one of the world’s most advanced early warning systems. Similarly, Istanbul, prompted by a devastating 1999 episode, embarked on aggressive retrofitting and stringent enforcement, complemented by earthquake insurance programs. Karachi deserves no less.
The ruling PPP in Sindh has rightly championed infrastructure development. Sadly, real growth cannot be measured solely by roads and buses. It requires the safety of its citizens, the integrity of its buildings, and evidence to show its capacity to protect life when nature reminds us of its power.
