Like a dark omen presaging ill tides, every time Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in Washington to meet US President Donald Trump, it seems to signal turbulence ahead. Whether it has been expanded weapons deliveries, tightened sanctions, covert manoeuvres or open warfare, these meetings have repeatedly preceded escalation. Once again, with US military assets gathered across the Middle East and negotiations with Iran stalled, Netanyahu’s arrival appears timed for what many fear could be a decisive push toward direct confrontation.
The debate is no longer confined to nuclear capability. Iran has, on multiple occasions, indicated a willingness to negotiate and has maintained that it does not seek weapons-grade enrichment. Yet that has not settled the matter. The goalposts have shifted. What was once framed around uranium levels and inspections has broadened into demands concerning Iran’s missile programme and, more fundamentally, the nature of the Iranian state itself.
For Israel, Iran’s missile capability represents an existential threat. For Iran, those same missiles constitute its primary deterrent against technologically superior adversaries. Under no circumstances is Tehran likely to surrender what it views as its only credible shield against the United States and Israel. To expect otherwise is to demand that a sovereign state commit strategic self-destruction. It was precisely this deterrent capacity that, during recent flare-ups, prevented escalation from spiralling uncontrollably. Any expectation that Iran will abandon it without sweeping security guarantees is detached from geopolitical reality.
Complicating matters further is the volatile political environment within the United States. Domestic controversies, including renewed scrutiny surrounding the Epstein files and the individuals named within them – of which Donald Trump is the most frequent – have intensified political pressure in Washington.
It is only a matter of time before the real compromising material that invariably resides with Epstein’s associates in Israel is used to compel Donald Trump into action.
