Allah Nawaz Khan
The growing tension between Iran, the United States and Israel has become a major global issue. This escalation is severely affecting the world economy. At present, there is a temporary ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran. Negotiations for a complete ceasefire were held but did not succeed. Some time ago, the US President claimed that Iran had suffered an almost complete military defeat. He also claimed that Iranian nuclear facilities had been targeted. It is now becoming clear that Iran has not been completely defeated and remains a strong party confronting the United States.
The real core issue is Iran’s nuclear program. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, international sanctions, and other matters are of secondary importance. Tehran is not prepared to abandon its nuclear program under any circumstances. Thanks to Pakistan’s mediation, the war has been temporarily halted. New talks are now scheduled to be held in Islamabad. It is being claimed that if the Islamabad negotiations fail, the ceasefire will still continue.
Pakistan is making efforts for global peace, and these efforts are being internationally recognized. This war was not only between the US, Israel, and Iran; the entire Middle East region has been affected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe damage to the global economy. Oil and gas prices have seen a massive surge, triggering a global energy crisis. Even if the war does not resume but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global economic problems will continue to worsen. In the coming days, prices of petroleum products and many other commodities are expected to rise sharply.
If the war restarts, the entire region will be engulfed in conflict. A full-scale war may not begin, but limited strikes could occur. Attempts will be made to further weaken Iran through such strikes, along with the imposition of additional sanctions. Protests inside Iran could also be instigated, which would further weaken the country. In response, Iran would attack American installations and Israel. Iranian attacks could prove dangerous for the countries hosting US bases. There is also a possibility that Iran may use its nuclear capability for military purposes. However, it has not yet been fully confirmed whether Iran has enriched uranium to a level sufficient for military use.
Considering these risks, the United States cannot easily restart the war, though the possibility remains. Proposals are being exchanged for negotiations. US President Donald Trump has rejected the latest proposals received from Iran, calling them “completely unacceptable.” Both Israel and the US are issuing threats of war, while Tehran is declaring its readiness to deal with any situation. Iran has consistently conveyed that it is ready for negotiations but will not accept talks under imposed conditions or pressure.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is leading the negotiating process with the United States, has made it clear regarding any potential military confrontation that Iran is prepared to respond. The Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s armed forces has also stated that they are ready for any scenario. This issue cannot be resolved immediately, but the possibility that it will remain unresolved cannot be ruled out.
The United States itself is eager to exit this war because of the huge costs involved. Public pressure is also forcing the Trump administration to end the conflict. Iran, being in a relatively weaker position, does not want war under any circumstances. Therefore, it can be said that the war is unlikely to resume. However, it cannot be claimed with complete certainty that war will not occur. Israel does not want Iran to stabilize its position, and the US may restart the war to maintain its grip on the Middle East.
One major reason for the failure of negotiations is that both sides are unwilling to trust each other. The United States can take the initiative to build trust. Progress toward a peace agreement can be made by accepting some of Iran’s demands. America can take the lead by lifting international sanctions, releasing frozen assets, or paying war reparations. On the other hand, Iran can send a positive message by at least ending the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
It would therefore be better to take some concrete steps to pave the way for peace. Restoring trust is of paramount importance. If trust is not restored, war will break out. Even a minor incident could escalate into a major war. The war is temporarily suspended, but tension persists. Iran wants not only a complete ceasefire but also guarantees that there will be no war in the future. Iran has repeatedly stated that it cannot trust the United States or Israel.
Something concrete must be done to maintain trust. Pakistan continues to make efforts for a durable, long-term solution to this issue. Other countries affected by the war also want a better resolution—one that does not create problems in the future. For peace to return to the Middle East, the US-Iran conflict must end. Not only should the Iran-US dispute be resolved, but conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and across the entire region must also be brought to an end.
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