PESHAWAR
India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance has triggered alarm among agriculture experts and farmers alike, who warned that weaponizing water could unleash a humanitarian and economic crisis in Pakistan by pushing millions toward hunger and deprivation.
For Pakistan, agriculture and food security largely depend on the Indus Basin irrigation network, and the repeated violations of IWT by India is being considered a grave breach of international commitment and agreements.
Agricultural economists and international relations experts said that IWT violations has not only threatened the lifeline of hundreds of thousands of agriculture and fish farms, orchards and rural communities, particularly in Pakistani Punjab and Azad Kashmir but also expose millions of people to hunger and starvations in the region.
They believed that the illegal India’s step reflected a calculated attempt to destabilize Pakistan’s food production and create long-term insecurity in a region already grappling with climate change, and water stress.
Professor Dr. Zialkat Malik, former Chairman of the Economics Department at the University of Peshawar, described the unilateral suspension of the treaty by India as a grave breach of international commitments and agreements.
“India went against World Bank guarantee and Geneva conventions,” he said, adding in future no state will trust RSS backed Modi to ink any agreement with him. “Pakistan’s agriculture relies on the Indus Basin irrigation system for more than 80 percent of its water supply. Any attempt to obstruct or manipulate flows of the western rivers could trigger severe food insecurity and economic decline in the region,” he told APP.
According to Malik, reduced flows in these rivers whose rights were guaranteed to Pakistan under the treaty could directly impact the production of major crops such as wheat, rice and cotton. Lower yields would not only hurt domestic food supply but also weaken agricultural exports.
With nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s farmland and 90 percent of its irrigation system dependent on the Indus Basin, the stakes are immense. Experts warned that even partial disruptions in water flow could create severe water shortages in Sindh and southern Punjab, putting millions of rural families at risk.
Punjab, Pakistan’s main grain producer, normally harvests more than 20 million metric tons of wheat annually, accounting for roughly 80 percent of the national output. For the 2024–25 season alone, the province produced an estimated 22.05 million metric tons from over 16 million acres.
“A sustained reduction in river flows could devastate this production base,” said Dr Zilkat Malik. “Critical crops such as wheat, rice and cotton are extremely vulnerable if water flows are disturbed during sowing or growing seasons,” Dr Malik said.
The consequences could cascade through the entire economy. Agriculture contributes around 23 percent of Pakistan’s GDP and provides employment to about 38 percent of the workforce. A water shock would therefore mean declining exports, rising food prices and worsening rural poverty.
The threat becomes even more alarming when combined with climate change. Southern Punjab and Sindh are already experiencing rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and creeping desertification.
Experts warned that reduced river flows would force farmers to rely heavily on groundwater extraction by accelerating aquifer depletion and increasing soil salinity. “Fertile agricultural land could gradually turn barren if water shortages persist,” Dr Malik cautioned.
Dr. Adnan Sarwar Khan, former Chairman of the International Relations Department at the University of Peshawar, said the implications of IWT suspension extend beyond agriculture and economics. “The weaponization of water is essentially an attempt to push millions of people toward hunger and starvation,” he said.
The Indus Basin supports the livelihoods of more than 245 million people and supplies over 80 percent of Pakistan’s agricultural water needs. Any disruption, he warned, could aggravate malnutrition and health risks in children and women.
“If water availability declines, the risks of stunted growth among children and malnutrition among lactating mothers will increase,” he added, describing the treaty’s suspension as a serious human rights concern.
The treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960 between Pakistan and India, has long been regarded as one of the most durable water-sharing agreements in the world.
Pakistan maintains that the agreement remains legally binding and cannot be unilaterally suspended or held in abeyance— a position that has also been recognized by the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
While condemning India’s actions, experts emphasized that Pakistan must accelerate domestic water storage projects to reduce vulnerability.
Major projects such as the Mohmand Dam, Dasu Hydropower Project and Diamer-Bhasha Dam are expected to store millions of acre-feet of water and generate thousands of megawatts of electricity once completed.
Alongside these mega projects, Malik stressed the importance of constructing small dams across northern Pakistan to capture rainwater.
“Small dams require far less investment and can be built more quickly. They are a practical way to strengthen Pakistan’s water security,” he said.
Experts reiterated that the international community must recognize the humanitarian consequences of undermining the treaty and press India to reverse its illegal move. They argued that if unilateral suspension of such agreements becomes acceptable, it could set a dangerous precedent for other upstream countries to use water as a geopolitical weapon.
“The world must look beyond trade interests and ensure that water, being the lifeline of millions, is not turned into a tool of coercion,” Dr. Adnan Sarwar said.
