Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb recently warned that “two reasons that could derail us from becoming a $3 trillion economy” are climate change and unchecked population growth. He is right to call them existential threats. Yet beyond such declarations, Pakistan’s leadership has shown little readiness to confront them. The ground reality is stark: the country now has about 251 million people, growing at 2.5 per cent a year, and nearly half live below the poverty line.
Pakistan also ranks among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations (Global Climate Risk Index 2025). The 2022 monsoon floods submerged a third of the country, affecting 33 million people and causing $30 billion in damage. The 2025 floods displaced millions more and killed nearly a thousand. However, our plans for adaptation and reform remain tentative at best.
Pakistan emits less than one per cent of global greenhouse gases, but suffers enormous losses–about $2 billion in recent years. The debt of justice is clear. The rich world pollutes far more, all the while delivering pennies to Pakistan’s relief. As Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal lamented, the country received only $600 million after the $30 billion 2022 disaster, and not a single dollar from the $100 billion climate fund promised to developing nations. This imbalance is staggering: Pakistan must now shoulder recovery almost entirely on its own.
No qualms about climate change being an economic crisis, but knowing the problem is only half the battle. The bigger failure has been at home, where plans exist (national adaptation plan, climate policy, etc.), and implementation lags.
Water experts urge that Pakistan must adapt to this new normal by integrating flood management into all development projects. Instead, we see momentary high-level task forces (a climate minister given 300 days to report) with few concrete steps. After all, an economy cannot grow if entire provinces are underwater every few years. The population emergency is no less alarming. Lawmakers have declared Pakistan’s rapid growth a national threat, calling for universal schooling, especially for girls, and a sweeping family-planning drive. The Council of Islamic Ideology has quite impressively endorsed birth spacing, urging religious leaders to shift norms.
Nonetheless, serious action remains elusive. Millions more mouths strain crumbling schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. Social sectors need reform, may it be through female education, accessible contraception, and community health, as urgently as the economy needs bailouts. If population is truly seen as an economic drag, words must be backed by budgets and accountability. The good news is that the conversation has begun. However, if Pakistan truly seeks a $3 trillion economy, it must decide who will build it–bureaucrats and bloated households, or entrepreneurs and healthy, educated citizens.
