MOSCOW
After three days of talks in Saudi Arabia, at last some progress. Two separate texts outlining agreements between the US and Russia, and the US and Ukraine.
There were some differences but much was the same. All sides agreed “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”.
They also agreed “to develop measures for implementing… the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine”.
President Zelensky regretted there was no explicit ban on attacks on civilian infrastructure but sounded broadly content.
He told reporters Ukraine would implement the Black Sea and energy ceasefires immediately.
He also got a nod to his agenda with the US saying that it would “remain committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children”.
But then came a third document, issued by the Kremlin, which muddied the waters.
It imposed conditions that did not appear in the original agreement between the US and Russia.
It said the Black Sea ceasefire would come into force only when sanctions were lifted on Russian banks, insurers, companies, ports and ships that would allow it to export more agriculture and fertiliser goods.
In other words, they saw this deal not just as a revival of the old Black Sea Grain Initiative they pulled out of in 2023, but also an opportunity to roll back a significant number of economic sanctions.
However, doing this may take some time and thus delay any maritime ceasefire.
It also may not entirely be in the gift of the US to make all the changes Russia requested.
For example, any return to the SWIFT financial messaging system would require EU approval.
