The National Assembly has been told that the National Wheat Policy 2026-30 has been finalised in consultation with the provinces and will be placed before the cabinet before the 2026-27 budget, but the announcement lands in a market where confidence has already been damaged by weak execution and a procurement transition that left farmers exposed at the worst possible moment.
Punjab’s latest move to demand stock declarations from traders within two weeks shows the extent of official anxiety over crop size, public reserves and future flour prices. Reports of lower production, weak government stocks and accelerated private buying have created exactly the conditions in which traders, mills and farmers begin acting on expectations rather than official statements.
The old Food Department model was costly, wasteful and vulnerable to political manipulation, with storage burdens, circular debt and distorted incentives that could not continue forever. Yet it cannot be replaced in the blink of an eye, especially when Punjab’s average wheat yield has been reported at around 33 maunds per acre, official assessments point to a provincial shortfall of 3 to 10 per cent, and analysts fear the national crop may be more than 20 per cent below annual requirements. Furthermore, stocks held by Passco and provincial food departments are considered insufficient to bridge the expected gap, which makes the absence of timely procurement planning even more damaging.
Farmers entered this season with the memory of last year’s nearly Rs2,200 per maund distress sales, high input costs and uncertainty over procurement. Even this year, when the Punjab government later announced Rs3,500 per maund, many growers reportedly sold at Rs2,900-Rs3,100 at peak arrivals, only to watch the market move towards Rs3,700. The Minimum Support Price was meant to protect growers during price crashes, not become an instrument for suppressing prices once the market recovered.
Input economics made matters worse. DAP fertiliser reportedly rose from around Rs12,000 per 50kg bag last year to over Rs16,000 this season, while diesel, electricity, seed and labour also became costlier. Farmers reduced fertiliser use and acreage, as a result of which, yields are said to have already fallen by nearly five maunds per acre.
Punjab’s aggregator model was ambitious on paper: about three million tonnes were to be procured through private firms, supported by bank facilitation, markup support, free Food Department storage and technical assistance. In practice, only a few of the shortlisted aggregators reportedly secured bank funding, and approvals came late, after much of the crop had moved into private storage networks.
The new policy will be judged less by its stated ambition than by whether it changes the order in which the state acts.
Crop estimates using satellite and field data, flexible procurement prices, a transparent private sector, reduced inter-provincial barriers, and targeted subsidies for vulnerable households can no longer be kicked further down the dusty road. More urgent than ever before, Pakistan needs a competent framework that can protect farmers and consumers alike.
