A research paper published by Goldman Sachs on Monday projected Pakistan to be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.
Authored by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas and titled ‘The Path to 2075’, the paper projected that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the US, Indonesia and Nigeria.
Goldman Sachs has been projecting long-term growth of countries for almost two decades now, initially starting out with BRICs economies, but for the past 10 years they have expanded those projections to cover 70 emerging and developed economies.
Their latest paper covers 104 countries with projections going as far as 2075.
Pakistan’s star future status is predicted on the back of its population growth, which along with Egypt and Nigeria, could place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years, according to Goldman Sachs.
By that time, the research projects Pakistan’s Real GDP to have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,100.
These numbers, however, are projected to be less than a third of the size of China, India and the US. India’s Real GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300.
Among key risks to their projections, the economists particularly highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism”.
Unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, climate change could heavily skew these projections, particularly for countries like Pakistan, with geographies that are especially vulnerable.
With populist nationalists coming to power in many countries, the report says it might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalisation, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.